Outspoken analyst thinks the Wii 2 console should have been Nintendo's focus for 2011 rather than 3DS
Nintendo may have unveiled its new 3DS handheld this week, but outspoken Wedbush Securities analyst Micheal Pachter thinks the company should be focussing on Wii 2 instead. Nintendo has "blown it", he said.
OK, he did give some more detail:
With as much respect for Nintendo management as I can muster, I think Nintendo's completely blown it with their second generation Wii strategy. I think they have the mentality that to launch a new console they have to retire the old, and I think that's wrong. I think the right strategy would have been to get a second generation Wii out and keep the old Wii at the same time, and have the second generation be the natural progression upgrade model.
He probably has a point here. Sales of the Wii have slowed as the novelty has worn off, but I'm not sure that an "upgrade" to Wii would involve "online functionality" and "Call of Duty multiplayer" as he implies:
You don't see Mercedes stopping production of the E-Class because they have a C-Class ... so they should let people start with the Wii and graduate to the Wii 2, and have online functionality and Call of Duty multiplayer on there and compete with the 360. Instead, they're actually conceding that multiplayer market to Xbox 360 and PS3. They've always conceded it, but now with Kinect and Move, it's a lot easier for people to make 360 or PS3 their starter console.
Does Pachter honestly think that Wii 2 needs to add online multiplayer to be a success? To me, he is missing the point. The Wii sold so well because it was new and different. It appealed to people who would never go near a 360 or PS3. Can you imagine your mum/dad/gran ever saying, "stuff the Wii bowling today let's all play Black Ops this afternoon"? No, me neither. And anyway, the Wii already has online gaming. Yes, the system is cumbersome and restrictive but it's there; it's just not that popular. Would it be more widely used by Wii owners if it was slicker and had Call of Duty on it? Honestly?
Anyway, Pachter concludes:
I just think Nintendo's blown it; I think by the time they launch if it's Christmas 2011, it's two years too late, and for sure one year too late. So it's over ? I don't think they can ever recover. Wii sales will continue to decline and I think Wii 2 will not sell well. And third parties aren't going to support it unless it's really similar to a 360 ... and when I say similar, I mean so that it's easy for them to port games from 360 to Wii 2. If Nintendo advances the technology, and it's more powerful than a PS3, then no one's going to support it. That's a problem, and so they're really stuck. If they were going to emulate the 360, which is what I thought they'd do, they should have done that in 2009. And if they're going to advance the tech, then 2011 is really not the right year. They're really in between right now.
So Pachter thinks the currently unannounced Wii 2 will "not sell well". He could have a point. The original Wii was a unique product that was well marketed and built. Wii 2 will need more than better motion control to have the same impact. But you can imagine Nintendo know this and are working on something that is more than just an HD Wii.
What do you think? Does Wii 2 need to have online multiplayer to succeed? Are most Wii users ? who are not hardcore gamers, remember ? really looking for an upgrade path? And what would you want to see in the Wii 2?
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/gamesblog/2011/jan/21/wii2-nintendo-blown-it-says-analyst
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