Billy Tompson: How the US can win friends and influence people in Pakistan

China has a powerful trade relationship with Pakistan, but Pakistanis have more affinity with the US through social media

In the post-Bin Laden milieu, many musings have been posted and printed about continuing US aid to, or more broadly, a relationship with, Pakistan. It is difficult to convince the populace on either side that this relationship is both vital to US national interest and critical for Pakistani stability and growth. At the heart of the debate lays one, overriding question: what is Pakistan's strategic value to the US?

Perhaps the narrow scope of the "war on terror" has not been able to answer this question sufficiently. So, it may be necessary to take a step back, and look at the larger trends at work in international relations. This is what China has been doing for some time. Their approach, rooted in fueling trade between themselves and the second largest nation in South Asia with a growing youth population, and unrivaled port access, has certainly seen them win Pakistani hearts.

Yet, Pakistani minds remain closer to the US. The American potential to help strengthen civil society, particularly through social media, in Pakistan is immense.

Geopolitical thinkers, notably Robert Kaplan, posit that competition between Asian powers, namely China, and the US will grow fiercely in the near future. Through naval and air power, commerce and communication mainly along sea lines will expand vastly, with the Indian Ocean taking centre stage. A critical geostrategic partner in this region could be Pakistan. A re-evaluation of Pakistan's true strategic value requires re-examining current policy towards that country. Sentiment in the US may well be distrusting of the Pakistani security and political establishment, but civil society in Pakistan is showing signs of strengthening, bringing with it a potential for new and reliable partners in the country. And while the Chinese have successfully pinpointed that trade relations with Pakistan win favour with the populace best, China has little capacity to engage the people of Pakistan on the level of ideas.

China's trade presence in Pakistan has been growing for decades. The steady, indirect approach is something either to marvel at for the emerging superpower's foresight, or to note down for its good fortune. In 2010, trade between the two countries reached a whopping $8.7bn: not bad for a nation wrestling with militancy. Above all else, the Chinese have come to represent reliability in Pakistan in a way that the Americans simply have not ? despite the fact that the US, too, pumps billions of dollars into Pakistan every year.

The Americans, clearly, are not getting the right kind of bang for their buck. China has truly won the hearts of the populace, if not minds; this, in turn, has cultivated trust between the two countries. Yet, for the Chinese to nurture and build connections in Pakistani civil society may be a long way away, as the hyper-politicised people of Pakistan are far removed from the political leanings of the Chinese. Enter, America.

For both legal and security reasons, the US does not carry out extensive trade in Pakistan. After all, without the necessary security for Americans, Pakistan represents a high-risk destination; and of this Pakistanis themselves are perhaps most disadvantaged. But this does not mean that trade relationships in the future should be discounted. Looking at the success of the Chinese approach, a long-term strategy to create jobs and business opportunities for Pakistanis and Americans is plausible. Currently, however, Pakistanis are disenchanted by American foreign policy.

Pakisatani anti-Americanism has always been interpreted as ideological abhorrence of the US. This may be the case for the militant minority that causes the biggest headache, but, in fact, that anti-Americanism may be driven more generally by an asymmetry of information ? and what Pakistanis perceive as US support for a government that does not cater well to the needs of its own people. But the current most significant American exports to Pakistan ? Facebook and Twitter ? have changed the face of communication opportunities available to regular Pakistanis. Some 20 million Pakistanis are frequently online: that's 10-15% of the population. This incidental creation of a virtual civil society has not gone unnoticed: last week, the American consulate organised an international social media summit in Karachi, where internet-savvy journalists and bloggers came together from neighbouring countries and throughout Pakistan to discuss ventures such as "Harass Map" in Pakistan. It's these citizen connections, enabling Pakistanis themselves to build civil society in Pakistan, that can overcome security concerns both locally and internationally.

China may have discovered trade as a key to Pakistan's strategic value; but the US is better-placed to make the relationships that will count.

Bilal Baloch

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